The fate of the Lib Dems lies in the economy: Accurate predictions for the state of the economy to 2015

The fate of the government and that of the Lib Dems essentially comes down to the state of the economy in the time they are in office. There are so many predictions and so called experts who tell us what is going to happen only for them to then revise their forecasts. People rely on the newspapers and these experts like Nouriel Roubini to inform us, yet how reliable are these sources? Below is a graph of Roubini’s stock market calls which shows how accurate he is at predicting the market.:

The papers have a particular view too:

Telegraph – Britons’ fears raise double-dip recession chance

Bloomberg – Blanchflower Says Budget `Certain’ to Lead to Double Dip

Financial Times, Martin Wolf is worried that the concerted austerity of Germany, Britain and other industrialised countries may “destroy the recovery”.

Guardian – Britain’s leading companies increasingly fear the UK could suffer a double dip recession because of government public spending cuts and a renewed economic slowdown across the globe, according to a report released today.

People are left with a very negative view of what is going to happen. However, if the papers, academics and experts are getting it wrong then why are people still listening to them? As essential ingredient of the solution focused approach is finding ‘what works’ and in this case it would be not listening to these sources and finding sources which have been correct. Nadeem Walayat is someone who have been consistently correct on the UK house pricing (including the crash), the UK stock market (with scarily accurate predictions) and UK inflation and as he has been consistently correct then he is someone worth listening to.

He has released his predictions of the UK GDP forecast from 2010 to 2015 and makes interesting reading (as does his stock market predictions)

This contrasts with the Governments forecasts (OFBR) UK economic growth:

  • 2010-11 : 1.8%
  • 2011-12 : 2.4%
  • 2012-13 : 2.9%
  • 2013-14 : 2.8%
  • 2014-15 : 2.7%
  • 2015-16 : 2.7%

Time will tell who is correct but Walayat has a better track record than most and so is a more realistic view of what we are dealing with as a country and a party. But what really matters is the unemployment rate, or people with jobs.

This is where the Lib Dems need to start making some progress with a clear stamp that the party has helped reduce unemployment in the long run.


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