Opinion polls which show some fundemental beliefs about Lib Dem strategy are wrong (and what needs to be done)

The recent Sun commissioned opinion poll makes for interesting reading for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, it is not a good news story of increased voting intention, but it questions some of our fundamental beliefs which has informed our political strategy and the recent calls to the party leadership. This poll shows how many people believe that the Lib Dem vision of society best represents what they want:

It is not good news that at present only 11% of people responded that the Lib Dems reflect the kind of society they want, and it probably wouldn’t surprise people to see that of those intending to vote Lib Dem a vast majority believe they do. The interesting thing is the fact that only 32% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 believed they did. More people who voted for the Lib Dems believed other parties reflected the kind of society they want than the party they voted for. Much has been written about the types of voters the Lib Dems attracted in the 2010 General Election and it was never going to be possible to retain these votes. However, this fact poses some questions for the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems have consistently complained that the party is not getting its message across and members of the party have demanded the leadership and the party push the Lib Dem message harder. The underlying belief is that if only people got the Lib Dem message, then more people would want to vote for them and the polls would rise; and in many ways this is true.

However, the Lib Dems have complained about this problem for years, not just since it has been in this Coalition. The polls dipped to 11% when Ming Campbell was in charge and he stepped down complaining that the press focused more on his socks than the policies. And again this was true.

But considering the fact that the Lib Dem polls have always gone down after an election leaving the core Lib Dem vote, hence the rise in this poll in voters who believe the party’s vision of society, may mean we have to consider another possibility other than that people are not getting the message. Maybe people do get the message that we have given out and those who agree vote for the party. Then the party attracts people who agree on other specific issues but not with the Lib Dem message, it attracts protest votes and tactical votes but not people who believe in the Lib Dem message. So in the election in 2010 most people who voted for the Lib Dems did not believe the Lib Dem message.

We see the pattern of  losing votes after an election (those who don’t believe in the Lib Dem vision) reverting to our core vote (polls go down), pick up specific issue votes (polls go up) and at election time gain protest votes (polls peak). But look at this poll for Labour or the Conservatives. People who vote for them believe in the society their party wants and their poll ratings remain more consistent than ours which makes it easier to build on.

Maybe we need to consider the fact that the message the Lib Dems have, the vision of society they communicate, is not convincing people. The message the party has is good enough for those who believe in the party and its values and principles, but it is not good enough to widen the party’s support base. The Lib Dems’ campaign in the general election seemed to focus heavily on gaining specific issue and protest votes, not widening the party’s support base through better communication of the Lib Dems’ vision of society. The party will naturally lose this support outside of elections if this is the strategy so why are we surprised the polls have dipped?

A majority of Lib Dem voters do not yet believe in the Lib Dems. This is where the Lib Dem strategy needs to focus. No more protest votes, no more targeting specific issue votes, but a wholesale campaign to convince people of the society we believe in, the society we joined the party for. We need a better story for that society, not just specific policies, not just specific gains in government, but a story about a liberal society, what this means and how it affects citizens.

People do not vote for what you do, they vote for why you do it. The party needs to give people something to believe in.